We see three scenarios for 2019 - is it a benign outlook like 2016? A bubble bursting like 2000? Or will inflation accelerate?

The US economy needs to slow down. The key question is what causes it to slow and which markets fishtail as a result. It is time to be very careful with portfolios.

The world is getting very interesting. Two strong forces - the US economy accelerating vs tariffs getting bigger - are creating a tug of war that means you need to have a bet each way.

For 10 years, the world chased yield - flows into emerging markets were massive. As rates rise, money will move to safer environments. It’s time to protect portfolios against major outflows from emerging markets.

With US unemployment running at just 3.8% (equal lowest rate since 1969), the Fed will have to hike rates four times this year, with the risk that bond yields go not just to 3.5% but somewhere well north.

Calm returned to global stock markets in May. But investors should not be lulled into a false sense of security. Equities and bonds face considerable headwinds as the Fed continues to tighten.

Fears of a US-China trade war contributed to recent stock market volatility. Practitioners must look beyond the market noise and focus on the medium-term outlook.

There is now a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more sharply than markets expect, leading to a recession in the next one to two years.

With unemployment at 30-year lows in many countries, practitioners should consider the possibility that wage pressures may force policymakers to tighten more aggressively, triggering substantial equity market falls.

Bond yields may rise by up to 90bps a lot faster than the Fed is suggesting. It's time to consider what happens to your portfolio if bond yields change gears.

Stock markets are thriving in a "Goldilocks" environment. But there is a growing risk of the US economy over-heating. Investors should keep a close eye on inflation and wages data.

As inflation re-emerges and central banks wind down their QE programs, yields will rise substantially. The key is not to lose money while medium-term ideas play out.

Portfolio construction practitioners should prepare for an environment which is less favourable for their equity and long bond exposures.